Vestas, a Danish wind turbine manufacturer, has patents related to carbon fiber wind turbine blades. In 2022, the ten-year patent protection period expires. China's relevant carbon fiber manufacturing enterprises are ready to kill the market.





Vestas has the largest scale of wind power service in the world and the leading technology in the world. The cumulative installed capacity of his company is more than three times that of China's land and sea, which can be described as a giant enterprise. However, the company's statements show that the profit, cash flow and shareholder return are not satisfactory, because of the competition of Chinese companies. What will the fall of the patent wall bring to the company this year





1. Carbon fiber precursor





According to the division of raw materials, carbon fiber precursor can be divided into polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber precursor, asphalt based carbon fiber precursor, viscose based carbon fiber precursor, etc. polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber precursor has obvious performance advantages.







The precursor can be divided into large tow and small tow. Small tow has excellent performance but high price. It is generally used in aerospace, military industry and other high-tech fields. Large tow products have relatively low performance and are generally used in basic industries, such as carbon beams used in wind power blades. In China, Zhongfu Shenying first broke through the dry jet wet spinning technology and continuously cultivated small tow. Jilin Carbon Valley focuses on the layout of large strand precursor, with the first market share.





Data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory:





The production cost of industrial grade carbon fiber in large-scale production is 144 yuan / kg, and the cost of precursor accounts for about 50%, that is, 72 yuan / kg; The production cost of aviation grade carbon fiber under large-scale production is 179 yuan / kg and that of precursor is 89 yuan / kg.





Data of Shandong University in China:





3300 T / a polyacrylonitrile based precursor production line, with a cost of 38 yuan / kg; The cost of 1500 T / a pan based carbon fiber is 116 yuan / kg.





2. Analysis on the competition pattern of China's carbon fiber precursor industry





In 2020, the highest carbon fiber precursor production capacity in China is carbon Valley + Baojing, with a production capacity of 40000 tons. Baojing is a new company name formed by Baowu group's acquisition of the main shares of Jinggong carbon fiber. The carbon fiber factory jointly invested by Jinggong and Jilin chemical fiber is also part of it. It adopts the precursor of Jilin Carbon Valley, a professional precursor company of Jilin chemical fiber group, so it is called carbon Valley + Baojing; Jilin chemical fiber group also has its own other carbon fiber assets. At present, it is mainly two small-scale carbonization lines and the 500 ton carbonization line of Jiangcheng carbon fiber. In addition, they are expanding the production of about 15000 tons of carbonization plant. Of course, the carbonization unit of Jilin chemical fiber also adopts the precursor of the brother unit carbon valley.







At present, it is not found that the international carbon fiber giants export carbon fiber precursor in batches to China. The international carbon fiber industry giants mainly sell carbon fiber or carbon fiber products to China, and the export of high-end products in developed countries is also restricted, which limits the development of domestic carbon fiber industry. As a dual-use product, carbon fiber has sensitive properties. It is difficult for international giants to export carbon fiber precursor with high technical threshold to China.





The manufacturing process of carbon fiber is very complicated, and the technical content is very high. After accumulating a lot of R & D and production experience, it is found that among the three raw materials, rayon, pan and pitch, the carbon fiber made of polyacrylonitrile precursor has the best performance.





First, propylene should be obtained. Generally, propylene refining and chemical enterprises or coal chemical enterprises can produce it in mass. Propylene reacts with ammonia and oxygen in the air in the presence of catalyst to form acrylonitrile monomer. Polyacrylonitrile is obtained by copolymerization of acrylonitrile. Polyacrylonitrile is fused with solvent, then drawn and washed to form precursor. The density and strength of precursor must be very uniform, otherwise it will fall short of success.





Carbon fiber precursor can be prepared by dry jet wet spinning and wet spinning. Dry jet wet spinning has the advantages of high product quality and fast spinning speed. Chinese manufacturer Zhongfu Shenying adopts dry jet wet spinning process and Jilin Carbon Valley adopts wet spinning process. Hengshen Co., Ltd. and Guangwei composite materials adopt two processes: dry spray wet spinning and wet spinning.





3. Carbon fiber paving capacity





At present, the carbon fiber industry can be said to be the world's precursor. In 2020, the global carbon fiber production capacity of the United States, China and Japan ranked among the top three, with 37000 tons, 36000 tons and 29000 tons respectively. Now, according to various reports, by 2025, the most pessimistic demand for precursor in China will also be about 150000 tons.





At present, Jilin Carbon Valley has a production capacity of 60000 tons, and 150000 tons are under construction, totaling 210000 tons / year. Jilin Carbon Valley is the first mover, which is the rhythm of monopolizing the market. The newly built capacity of 150000 tons is mainly large tow products of 50K and above, which will be mainly used in wind power blades, rail transit, sports and leisure products and other fields. There will be 120000 tons in the future, with a total of 330000 tons in the future, which is the rhythm of heaven.







Zhongfu Shenying has a capacity of 21000 tons and is building a 20000 ton high-performance carbon fiber and supporting precursor project in Xining. Zhongfu Shenying products are small tow and high-end aerospace products.





Others include 13000 tons of production capacity of Jiangsu Hengshen and 12000 tons of production capacity of Guangwei composite materials.





In China's market, carbon fiber precursor manufacturers mainly include Hengshen Co., Ltd., Zhongfu Shenying, Guangwei composite and Jilin Carbon valley. Hengshen Co., Ltd. and Guangwei composite adopt dry spray wet spinning and wet spinning processes, Zhongfu Shenying adopts dry spray wet spinning process and Jilin Carbon Valley adopts wet spinning process. Jilin Carbon Valley can produce large tow and small tow carbon fiber precursor. In 2020, the consumption of carbon fiber precursor in China is about 103000 tons, of which domestic precursor accounts for about 38%. In the consumption of domestic precursor, Jilin Carbon Valley accounts for about 50%. Jilin Carbon Valley is the largest supplier of carbon fiber precursor in China.





Carbon fiber has excellent performance and a wide range of downstream applications. It can be used in electronics, machinery, industrial equipment, wind power, automobiles, ships, rail transit, aerospace and other fields. Through continuous development, China's carbon fiber production strength has been continuously improved, but the demand for high-end carbon fiber and composite materials is still highly dependent on foreign countries. Under the changeable international political and economic situation, the stable supply of carbon fiber products depends on imports, which is risky. China must realize the independent production of high-end products. As carbon fiber precursor is used as production raw material, its high-end development demand is also urgent.





China is transforming from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country. The market demand for high-performance materials is growing rapidly. High end carbon fiber and composites have broad development space, but China's production capacity is weak and the demand is highly dependent on foreign countries. The performance of carbon fiber precursor directly affects the quality and production cost of carbon fiber products. It is one of the key links in the technological upgrading of China's carbon fiber industry. In the future, carbon fiber precursor manufacturers recognized in the high-end market will have more development potential.





Source: fat and thin 0072003, Huajing information network, Zhang Xin, xinsijie



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